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Week 18. The end of the freaking NFL season is here and, man, did it get here fast. We should be in store for some awesome playoff games based on the teams in and/or vying for the postseason. But first we’ve got to navigate betting on the most difficult gambling week of the NFL season.
The final week of the year features a ton of teams who won’t play anyone, a couple of teams deeply motivated to win and a lot of reading between the lines and guessing on what certain coaches will do with their starters and/or key players.
We know a few things:
The Chiefs locked up the No. 1 seed and are resting everyone who is important. They’d be slight favorites against Denver in any other week, but the Broncos, who have to win to get in, are massive home favorites against Kansas City as a result.
The Bills are going to play Josh Allen and Co. “very, very” few snaps as they’re locked into the No. 2 seed. The Patriots may want to win less, considering they’re going for the No. 1 overall pick, although they already have their franchise quarterback in Drake Maye so tanking here shouldn’t be a thing.
The Texans are allegedly playing their starters even though they’re locked into the No. 4 seed.
The Bengals and Dolphins need to win and get some help to get in the postseason — Cincy plays Saturday so won’t know its fate by kickoff or even finish, but the Dolphins could be victim to scoreboard watching if the Broncos go up big early, and also get Aaron Rodgers in what could be his final game with the Jets, or even his final game ever.
The Falcons and Buccaneers both need to win for a chance at the NFC South title and Baker Mayfield’s mentioned wanting to get Mike Evans his 1,000-yard season to keep his streak alive. He needs just 85 yards.
The Eagles are locked into the No. 2 seed and aren’t even going to let Saquon Barkley chase after NFL rushing history. Their motivation this week is really low against a bad Giants team.
The Rams are starting Jimmy Garoppolo, which means we shouldn’t see many starters. Sean McVay loves to rest players.
The Commanders and Packers are battling for the bottom two seeds in the NFC, but we could see Green Bay scoreboard watch and pull guys if Washington is up big against Dallas.
NFL Week 18 best bets
Bengals ML (-125)
Joe Burrow’s been the hottest player in football over the last month or so. He’s inserted himself in the MVP discussion — legitimately, I might add — while the Bengals try to surge to the postseason. They play Saturday and are the first game on the entire week’s slate, so they can’t be eliminated by kickoff. The Steelers are a good team and will be playing hard for the division title, but they’re also hoping the Ravens will lose at home as 17.5-point favorites to Cleveland. They have to know they’re probably in trouble here and might wave the white flag on key players (looking at you, T.J. Watt) if Cincy gets any kind of decent lead. I don’t think it matters, though. The Bengals are going to give us a playoff sweat for Sunday because Burrow has ice in his veins. Ja’Marr Chase has locked up the touchdown title, but needs probably 5-6 catches and 75 yards or so to feel good about the triple crown (either Amon-Ra St. Brown would need 14 catches or Justin Jefferson would need 208 yards to catch him in that scenario). I feel good about a Cincy win here. This looks like it’s going to move toward Cincy, so I would shop around and bet it earlier.
Mike Evans over 94.5 receiving yards (-120)
Evans has hit the 1,000-yard receiving milestone in all 10 of his impressive seasons so far. He needs 85 yards to reach 1,000 this year and tie Jerry Freaking Rice for the most 1,000-yard seasons to start a career as a starter. And he gets a choice matchup against the Saints in which to do so, with the Bucs installed as 13.5-point home favorites against a very depleted New Orleans team. Todd Bowles wouldn’t commit to feeding Evans against New Orleans but Mayfield was a little more clear saying that winning is the important thing but “if we win, Mike is getting the record.” Evans has 45 targets in his last five games. The Saints just aren’t good on defense right now (or in general), giving up strong games to primary target earners in blowout losses the last two weeks and a two-tuddy outing to Terry McLaurin the week before that. Baker getting snubbed by the Pro Bowl this week may lead us to looking at some of his Overs as well. I might prefer to look at Evans catches or Evans anytime TD scorers once those markets emerge. This was the only number I could find as of this writing. But I think it’s a 100-yard day for the future HOF.
Jets (+1.5) vs. Dolphins
Maybe the Jets pack it in and I look stupid here, but I’m expecting a decent game from Rodgers in what could be his last game ever. Of all the matchups in Week 18, this feels like the biggest “division rival ruins a possible playoff berth for no real good reason” matchup. Rodgers won’t want to go out in an ugly fashion with the Jets, so we could see him look sharp against Miami and keep this competitive at home. Additionally, the Dolphins have to be doing a little scoreboard watching, because the Denver game matters to them. If Denver wins, they’re done. And the Broncos are huge home favorites. If word gets out to their sideline that the Broncos are up 20 points on the Chiefs backups — and by the way, the Chiefs would prefer Denver in the playoffs over the Bengals, they may do nothing against Denver if only by “accident” — you could see the Dolphins lose any real energy toward this matchup. Maybe Mike McDaniel tries to avoid seeing the score, but I’m sure MetLife Stadium will be putting it up for the entire Dolphins team to see, especially if the Broncos are rolling.
Seahawks (-6.5) at Rams
This line obviously bakes in the news that Jimmy G is starting for Matthew Stafford, but I’m not sure it firmly encapsulates all of the Rams’ likely decision-making in this matchup. Sean McVay’s hinted he’ll do what’s best for his team in terms of resting starters, but his history with rest and key players makes it clear the Rams might sit everyone. McVay doesn’t play his guys in the preseason and twice — in 2017 and 2023 — rested guys in the final week with a playoff spot clinched, even if the exact seed wasn’t known. The Rams are guaranteed a home playoff game regardless of whether they’re the No. 3 or No. 4 seed and while a win would give them the No. 3 seed and a chance to avoid the Vikings or Lions in the first round, I’m not sure McVay values that over the ability to essentially gives his players a bye week before what will be a massive home game regardless of opponent. This line has climbed four points in the last 24 hours or so and could move up even more with the Seahawks likely to run their guys out and give maximum effort and the Rams sitting everyone.
Panthers (+8) at Falcons
The Panthers got completely torched by the Bucs last week and the Falcons are in desperation mode after losing on Sunday night to Jayden Daniels in overtime. Atlanta knows it has to win and will be motivated but there’s some possibility for scoreboard watching here too with the Bucs massive favorites over the Saints. Tampa could jump out to a 17-point, first-half lead and the Falcons could get deflated quickly. Plus, the Panthers aren’t very good and won’t be able to stop Bijan Robinson, but I’m not sure Michael Penix Jr. is just going to magically carve up this depleted, try-hard defense. Additionally, the Falcons may struggle to slow down Bryce Young, who is very much capable of storming through the backdoor in the worst-case scenario here. I’m also very interested in Bijan props when they drop.
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