The New York Liberty are one win away from the first title in franchise history after a dramatic 80-77 win over the Minnesota Lynx in Game 3 of the 2024 WNBA Finals on Wednesday night. Sabrina Ionescu delivered the biggest shot of her career — and one of the biggest in league history — a deep game-winning 3-pointer with one second remaining.
After falling down by 15 in the first half, the Liberty embarked on their own comeback. They cut the deficit to eight at halftime and one heading into the fourth. Then, Ionescu took over the game down the stretch. She scored or assisted on the final eight points for the Liberty.
While Ionescu played hero down the stretch, Breanna Stewart was the one who led the comeback. She had 14 points in the third quarter alone, and was the only Liberty player to score in the 7:50 of the fourth quarter. Stewart finished with 30 points, 11 rebounds and four blocks in another big-time effort.
Here’s everything you need to know about this series:
No. 1 New York Liberty vs. No. 2 Minnesota Lynx
All times Eastern
- Game 1: Lynx 95, Liberty 93 — OT (Lynx lead, 1-0)
- Game 2: Liberty 80, Lynx 66 (Series tied, 1-1)
- Game 3: Liberty 80, Lynx 77 (Liberty lead, 2-1)
- Game 4: Liberty at Lynx, Friday, Oct. 18, 8 p.m. — ESPN
- Game 5*: Lynx at Liberty, Sunday, Oct. 20, 8 p.m. — ESPN
Players to watch
Liberty: Breanna Stewart
Throughout her career, Stewart has been one of the best postseason performers in league history. Over the first two series this season, she’s proved that her 3 of 17 outing in Game 4 of the 2023 Finals was a fluke, not the start of a downward trend. Her 3-point shot still isn’t falling as much as she’d like, but there’s been little else you can fault her for over the past few weeks. She’s averaging 20 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, one steal and 1.3 blocks in the playoffs.
Lynx: Napheesa Collier
Collier finished as runner-up to A’ja Wilson for MVP and won Defensive Player of the Year, and has backed that up by being the best player in the playoffs. Already she’s tied the postseason scoring record with 42 points in Game 2 against the Mercury, and during the semifinals became the first player ever with at least 25 points and 10 rebounds in three consecutive playoff games. She’s averaging 27.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.1 steals and two blocks in the postseason.
Three keys to the series
3-point shooting
In this day and age, 3-point shooting is a factor in every series, but it will be especially important in this matchup between two teams that are heavily reliant on scoring from behind the arc and defend that area of the floor extremely well. So far in the playoffs, the team that makes more 3s is 12-5.
During the regular season, only the Washington Mystics scored a higher percentage of their points from 3-point land than the Liberty (35.5%) and Lynx (34.8%). The Liberty took more of a volume approach, while the Lynx were extremely efficient with their attempts.
Here are the regular-season numbers:
|
Liberty |
29.0 |
1st |
34.9 |
5th |
|
Lynx |
25.0 |
6th |
38.0 |
1st |
In the playoffs, the two teams have nearly been identical from behind the arc. They’re both shooting 37.2%, with the Liberty at 24.7 attempts per game and the Lynx at 22.3 attempts.
Another similarity between the two teams is that nearly everyone on the team can, and will, let it fly. Nyara Sabally is the only player in the Liberty’s playoff rotation who won’t shoot from behind the arc, while Myisha Hines-Allen is the Lynx’s only reluctant shooter, and neither of them play heavy minutes. For the majority of these games, there will be 10 players on the floor who can shoot, and that puts tremendous pressure on the defense.
Speaking of the defensive side of the ball, both teams’ versatility translates. All five starters can switch and defend on the perimeter, which makes it difficult for opponents to get easy looks. During the regular season, the Lynx were first in opponent 3-point % (30.1) and the Liberty were third (32.4).
It’s going to be fascinating to see if either side’s elite offense can break the other side’s elite defense.
The Liberty’s front line vs. Napheesa Collier
Napheesa Collier is playing the best basketball of her life right now. Her 27.1 points per game in the playoffs not only lead all scorers, but are the most by a player entering the Finals since Maya Moore in 2015, and she recently became the first player in league history to have three consecutive playoff games of at least 25 points and 10 rebounds.
To win her first championship, she’ll have to keep producing like that against arguably the best defensive frontcourt in the league.
The Liberty are big and physical, with Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart leading the way, flanked by big wings in Leonie Fiebich and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton. Their length, activity and connectedness allows them to shrink the floor and makes it difficult to score on them consistently, especially inside the paint.
During the regular season, they allowed opponents to shoot just 59.3% in the restricted area, 55.9% inside five feet and 51.6% inside eight feet. Those marks ranked second, first and first in the league, respectively.
That just so happens to be where Collier prefers to operate. While she’s a capable three-level scorer, her best work comes inside, whether on drives, post-ups or dives to the rim out of pick-and-roll action. She shot 60.6% inside of five feet and 55.2% inside of eight feet.
Something will have to give in this series.
On paper, the Liberty may seem to have the advantage. Their forwards, particularly Stewart, are bigger than Collier, yet have the mobility to stick with her on the perimeter, and they have elite help defenders roaming around on the backside.
However, in the team’s four meetings this season, including the Commissioner’s Cup championship, Collier averaged 17.3 points on 27 of 55 (49.1%) shooting, 10.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists, and had just seven turnovers. The Lynx’s spacing and her passing ability makes it difficult to send too much help her way, and she’s so skilled at getting to her spots when she has time to play one-on-one.
Perhaps the biggest question is how aggressive the Liberty will be in trying to get the ball out of her hands.
Liberty’s homecourt and rest advantage
The Liberty worked hard in the regular season to get the No. 1 overall seed, and were able to take care of business early in the semifinals. Both of those factors now give them a distinct advantage heading into the Finals.
By earning the top overall seed for the first time since 2015, the Liberty have homecourt advantage and will get to play three games, if necessary, at Barclays Center. Between the regular season and the playoffs, they are 20-4 in Brooklyn, and boast regularly about how much of an energy boost they get from their electric home crowds. The Lynx will have to win at least once on the road to take this series, and that’s not going to be an easy task.
Furthermore, because the Liberty eliminated the Aces in just four games, they were done with the semifinals on Sunday and have been back in Brooklyn resting and preparing for the Finals since then. The Lynx, meanwhile, had to head from Connecticut back to Minneapolis for Game 5 on Tuesday, and then will have to travel halfway across the country again for Game 1 of the Finals on Thursday. It’s hard to quantify exactly how much the Liberty’s rest advantage will matter, especially as the series goes along, but it will certainly help them in Game 1. And in a short five-game series, that could be the difference.
Prediction
Where to start with this one. These teams are extremely similar their approach, and while the Liberty have the superteam label, the Lynx may actually have the best player in the series. The Liberty have homecourt advantage and have been resting since Sunday, but the Lynx went 3-1 in this matchup over the course of the summer.
This should be a close series. This should be a fun series. It will be a series the Liberty win. They’ve been the best team in the league all season long, and that’s not going to change now. They’re too driven and too talented to fail at the final hurdle again. Pick: Liberty in 5
