No. 10-seed Indiana (11-1) takes on (7) Notre Dame (11-1) on Friday night in a first-round College Football Playoff matchup between two in-state schools who have not played since 1991. Both teams excel in key areas, but how these strengths clash on the field will likely decide the outcome.
Indiana’s Relentless Pressure Without Blitzing
Indiana’s defense thrives by generating pressure on the quarterback without relying on blitzing. With a 39% QB pressure rate, ranking third in the nation, the Hoosiers disrupt opposing offenses while maintaining a solid secondary. Notre Dame, despite a strong offensive line, struggles under quick pressure, ranking 129th in average time to pressure allowed at 2.41 seconds.
| Metric | IND Defense | ND Offense |
|---|---|---|
| QB Pressure % | 39% (3rd) | 26% (55th) |
| Avg Time to Pressure | 2.40 sec (10th) | 2.41 sec (129th) |
Kurtis Rourke’s Mastery Under Pressure
Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke has been a revelation this season, excelling even when defenses apply pressure. With an FBS-best 160.9 passer efficiency rating under duress and a remarkable 10.3 yards per attempt, Rourke’s ability to make plays in difficult situations gives Indiana a crucial edge. His performance in the red zone is just as impressive — 19 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 72.7% completion rate lead the nation.
| Metric | FBS Rank |
|---|---|
| Pass Efficiency (Under Pressure) | 160.9 (1st) |
| Yards/Attempt | 10.3 (1st) |
| Red Zone Pass Efficiency | 271.9 (1st) |
| Red Zone Pass TD | 19 (T-3rd) |
Notre Dame’s Middle 8 Dominance
The Fighting Irish excel in controlling the “Middle 8”–the last four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half. At home, Notre Dame has outscored opponents 52-0 in this critical stretch, leveraging their disciplined play to swing momentum. In contrast, Indiana has struggled on the road during this span, posting a -5-point margin.
| Metric | IND (Road) | ND (Home) |
|---|---|---|
| Points Scored | 19 (70th) | 52 (13th) |
| Points Allowed | 24 (T-59th) | 0 (T-1st) |
| Points Margin | -5 (T-66th) | +52 (2nd) |
Key Matchups to Watch
Notre Dame’s Secondary vs. Indiana’s Deep Passing
Notre Dame’s secondary has allowed just one touchdown on passes of 20-plus yards and ranks third in completion percentage allowed at 21.3%. Indiana, however, counters with Rourke, who completes 47.8% of his deep throws and ranks No. 12 in deep-ball efficiency. This battle will be pivotal in determining the game’s outcome.
| Metric | Notre Dame Defense | Indiana Offense |
|---|---|---|
| Deep Pass Completion % | 21.3% (3rd) | 47.8% (T-8th) |
| Deep Pass Efficiency | 67.4 (2nd) | 232.6 (12th) |
Riley Leonard’s Mobility vs. Indiana’s Defense
Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard adds a dual-threat dimension to the game. With 721 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, Leonard is a challenge for any defense. Indiana, however, leads the nation in limiting quarterback rushing yards, limiting opposing quarterbacks to a net of minus-63 yards rushing on the season and only two rushing touchdowns.
| Metric | Riley Leonard | Indiana Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Yards/Rush | 5.8 (5th) | -0.7 (1st) |
| Rush Yards | 721 (9th) | -63 (1st) |
| Rush TD | 14 (T-7th) | 2 (T-9th) |
Notre Dame is a 7.5-point favorite in the College Football Playoff odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 51. Before locking in any College Football Playoff bracket picks or national championship bets, be sure to see the latest College Football Playoff predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.
The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and it went a profitable 43-34 on top-rated picks during the 2024 regular season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen impressive returns.
The model has Notre Dame beating Indiana in 70% of simulations. The Fighting Irish then knock off No. 2 seed Georgia in the model’s quarterfinal projections, creating value on Notre Dame (+700) to win the CFP. See the full College Football Playoff Bracket predictions here.
