Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Three great games on the slate for Thursday so let’s not dilly dally with a lot of jibber jabber up top. I’ll just say this though: I’m thankful for everyone who loves football and makes this a fun job, even the Eagles and Steelers fans who continue to lash out at me for not correctly predicting their hot starts.
I’m even thankful for the Philly radio guys for thinking my prediction of a 9-8 season for the Eagles was a BAD THING, as if nine wins is bad or calling someone a playoff team is an insult. And for thinking I “ate crow” when I was on this week (I didn’t).
And I’m thankful for Steelers fans who really get in my mentions because of this miracle season. I egged it, you nailed it, the Steelers are awesome.
Go football, go Thanksgiving, go America. Enjoy the games everyone!
Best Bets for Week 13
Lions (-9.5) vs. Bears
This number finally got low enough for me to find the Lions appealing, dipping below 10 on Wednesday night ahead of a Thanksgiving matchup with wildly shifting dynamics. The Lions are a long-time loser and suddenly are the best team in football. It’s really remarkable how fast Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes pulled this off. But even well-constructed rosters have finite windows for truly making a Super Bowl run, so I don’t think the urgency will ever leave this roster. Which means the Bears, who should be able to hang around for a decent portion of this, are going to get the Lions full focus in a holiday home game that should be extremely rowdy. The Lions just have too much firepower on offense and it’s a David Montgomery revenge game for Pete’s sake. The heartbeat of the Lions roster wants holiday vengeance on his old team and a division rival? Better watch out.
Bet the Lions-Bears game at Caesars Sportsbook
CeeDee Lamb 60+ yards/Malik Nabers 60+ yards (+138)
The matinee matchup on the Turkey Day slate can be picked apart pretty easily because of the quarterback situations for both the Cowboys and Giants. It’s why we’re staring at a game with a 37.5 point total. But I think there might be a little more offense than people think, especially if Tommy DeVito is NOT making the trip to Dallas for this affair. At the very least, DeVito is a longshot to play on Thursday afternoon. As such, I think we get a vintage YOLO spot for Drew Lock, who has produced some quality football in spot starts like this, including that memorable win over the Eagles on Monday night for the Seahawks last year when Geno Smith was hurt. Nabers was cheesed off following last week’s game and his uninvolvement in the offense in the first half and should be a focal point for Lock and Brian Dabol early. CeeDee Lamb is the alpha for Dallas, who is still throwing a decent amount despite losing Dak Prescott and having Cooper Rush out there. These guys just have to clear 60 yards, well below their actual total and we get a nice little juiced up price on the backside. This might hit in the first half, honestly.
Bet CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers props at DraftKings Sportsbook
Dolphins (+3.5) at Packers
There’s gonna be plenty of talk about the cold weather and Tua Tagovailoa’s performance away from the sunny conditions of Miami. And it’s supposed to be cold as heck and quite snowy up in Green Bay on Thursday night, but I think we’ve seen enough from the Dolphins the last few weeks to trust them offensively, especially since Jaire Alexander is already ruled out for this game. Romeo Doubs will miss time too, but the Packers have enough in the cabinet offensively. In other words, we should see some points in this one. The Dolphins defense has been playing a lot better the last few weeks as well, and could generate a turnover or two of Jordan Love to set up the offense. Either way there’s too many playmakers on the field for both teams not to put up points regardless of what kind of weather we get. And if the Dolphins can protect Tua, we should see them stay within a field goal of the Packers, with a decent look at upsetting Green Bay as they continue their push for the playoffs.
Bet on the Dolphins-Packers at BetMGM Sportsbook
Chargers (-1) at Falcons
Perfect bounce back spot for Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert after getting it handed to them a bit in a comedown game against brother John on Monday night. It’s on the road against a good team but the style of play for the Chargers is going to match up well against the Falcons, who would probably be better suited in a loose game environment. The Chargers will grind, grind, grind even without J.K. Dobbins and I think they’re just a little tougher and better on defense than Atlanta. Kirk Cousins has come back to earth a little bit over the last few weeks and I don’t think Atlanta will be able to run the ball the way that Baltimore did.
Bet on the Chargers-Falcons at FanDuel Sportsbook
Cardinals (+3.5) at Vikings
This is not your uncle’s Arizona team! They don’t seem intent on fading into oblivion in the second half of the season, instead remaining frisky and much better on defense. The Vikings have been a little uneven lately despite positive results and we haven’t seen them really pull away from anyone over the last few weeks — or at least pull away and then let the Bears in the backdoor unnecessarily anyway. Arizona is easily the best offense of the last few they’ve faced and I think Kyler Murray can rip off of some runs in this one and use his mobility a la Caleb Williams in the second half last week to get the ball to his playmakers and keep Arizona within the number here.
Bet the Cardinals-Vikings at DraftKings Sportsbook
