The race for the No. 1 seed in the NFC took on a whole new life this past week. No longer are the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles duking it out for home-field advantage (and the lone bye) in the NFC playoffs, but the Minnesota Vikings have entered the ring.
The Lions, Eagles and Vikings all sit at 12-2 with three games to play, and all could finish with the same record. The NFC North title is at stake as well with the Lions and Vikings both tied for first place, even though Detroit has the tiebreaker based on its victory over Minnesota in Week 7.
While the Lions and Vikings battle it out for the NFC North title, the Eagles are a win away form locking up the NFC East and the No. 2 seed in the conference — guaranteeing two home games in the playoffs. With the No. 2 seed near being locked up, Philadelphia can take care of business and put the pressure on Detroit and Minnesota to win out.
How will the race for home-field advantage play out? Which of the three contenders have the edge? Breaking down each team, we took a look at the remaining schedule for each and where the contenders stand in terms of tiebreakers entering Week 16.
|
Week 16 — Sunday, Dec. 22 |
at Bears |
4-10 |
|
Week 17 — Monday, Dec. 30 |
at 49ers |
6-8 |
|
Week 18 — TBD |
vs. Vikings |
12-2 |
- Conference record: 8-1
- Record against common opponents: 5-1 (vs. Eagles), 9-0 (vs. Vikings)
- Strength of victory: .512
- Strength of schedule: .536
The Lions currently possess the No. 1 seed in the conference and still have the edge toward getting home-field advantage, even with their loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Detroit still has the edge in conference record, record against common opponents, strength of victory and strength of schedule over Philadelphia — meaning the Eagles would need the Lions to lose one more game (while Philadelphia wins out) to earn the No. 1 seed.
That’s the situation with the Lions and Eagles. Now what about the Vikings? Detroit has the edge over Minnesota for the NFC North lead based on its head-to-head victory, but these two teams play each other again in Week 18. A Lions win over the Vikings will wrap up the NFC North and the No. 1 seed for the Lions (should they win out).
If the Vikings and Lions both have the same record heading into Week 18 and the Vikings win, Minnesota gets the division title over Detroit. If Minnesota is a game behind Detroit heading into that game and wins, both will be tied for overall record and division record. Detroit would still win the division based on having a better conference record than Minnesota, as both teams play NFC opponents the rest of the way (the Lions currently have a one-game edge over the Vikings in conference record).
Detroit still has the upper edge on home-field advantage over Philadelphia and Minnesota. However, the Lions’ margin for error is gone.
- Conference record: 7-2
- Record against common opponents: 4-1 (vs. Lions), 4-1 (vs. Vikings)
- Strength of victory: .440
- Strength of schedule: .454
The Eagles have the easiest path toward going 15-2, even with three divisional opponents remaining. Even if Philadelphia finishes 15-2, it’s going to need some help to lock up the No. 1 seed.
Detroit has the conference-record tiebreaker over Philadelphia, so the Eagles need a Lions loss in the final three games regardless. The Eagles can match the Lions in record against common opponents, since they have one more game against the Cowboys. Without the better conference record, it won’t matter. Same with strength of victory and strength of schedule, which the Lions have the clear advantage.
Philadelphia just needs Detroit to lose one game and win out. What about Minnesota? If the Vikings win out and finish 15-2, the Eagles and Vikings will finish with the same conference record (assuming the Eagles win out). They’ll also finish with the same record against common opponents as the Eagles (Eagles have the Giants left and Vikings have the Packers for common opponents).
Strength of victory is the next tiebreaker. The Eagles currently have the edge at the moment, but winning games against the NFC East will hurt them down the stretch. The Vikings are expected to pass the Eagles if they win out, since the combined record of their remaining opponents is 30-12.
The Eagles will have to win out, and bank on the Vikings losing a game prior to beating the Lions in Week 18. This is certainly realistic.
Philadelphia just needs one win for the No. 2 seed. That’s not so bad either.
Minnesota Vikings (12-2)
|
Week 16 — Sunday, Dec. 22 |
at Seahawks |
8-6 |
|
Week 17 — Sunday, Dec. 29 |
vs. Packers |
10-4 |
|
Week 18 — TBD |
at Lions |
12-2 |
- Conference record: 7-2
- Record against common opponents: 8-1 (vs. Lions), 4-1 (vs. Eagles)
- Strength of victory: .387
- Strength of schedule: .434
The Vikings have a simple path to the No. 1 seed — win out. Minnesota should get the No. 1 seed if the Vikings can accomplish this. The Vikings will have beaten the Lions and have the tiebreaker no matter what the Lions do prior to their Week 18 matchup, while the strength of the opponents they have beaten should put them over the Eagles in the strength of victory tiebreaker.
If Minnesota wins out, the Vikings get the NFC North and the No. 1 seed. The Vikings still have the toughest path toward winning out, as their remaining opponents have a combined record of 30-12 — which includes games in Seattle and Detroit.
Minnesota controls its own destiny for the No. 1 seed, and so does Detroit. The Week 18 matchup could be for all the marbles in the NFC.
