NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 3, 2023: Model high on Chiefs, Dolphins

A pair of Super Bowl rematches will highlight the Week 3 NFL schedule, including one that just occurred last year. Rams vs. Bengals takes place on Monday Night Football, with Cincinnati looking to get revenge after L.A. won Super Bowl LVI. The Bengals are 5.5-point favorites in the Week 3 NFL odds as they search for their first win of the season. The other rematch comes from Super Bowl XXVI in 1992, in which Washington handed the Bills the second of four straight defeats in the Big Game. This time around, Buffalo is favored by 6.5 in the NFL spreads despite Washington being off to its first 2-0 start in a dozen years.

The Commanders are one of six home underdogs per the Week 3 NFL betting lines and home dogs are 4-6 against the spread thus far in 2023. All of the Week 3 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 3 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 164-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 18-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 3 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 3 NFL predictions

One of the model’s strongest Week 3 NFL picks is that the Chiefs (-12.5) cover against the Bears in almost 60% of simulations. The reigning Super Bowl champions taking on a team on a 12-game losing streak is the reason for the large number, but it may not be large enough. The Bears have lost both games this season by double-digits, and their opponents, Green Bay and Tampa, aren’t anywhere near the level of Kansas City on offense.

Chicago has dropped its last five games by at least 10 points. The Bears lost by an average of 8.9 during the first seven losses, but they’ve since lost by an average of 19.4 during the last five defeats. Patrick Mahomes has faced Chicago once before in 2019 and his Chiefs nearly pitched a shutout in a 26-3 drubbing. The Chiefs are projected to win by more than two touchdowns and cover as 12.5-point favorites nearly 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 3 NFL predictions: The Dolphins (-7) cover the spread at home versus the Broncos. This is one of the few games on the Week 3 NFL schedule in which a team that’s 2-0 against the spread (Miami) is facing a team that’s 0-2 ATS (Denver). The humidity of South Beach has also been a House of Horrors for a franchise that plays its games in the Mile High City, as the Dolphins are 8-1 all-time at home versus the Broncos.

Denver has gotten off to an 0-2 record both straight-up and against the spread despite opening with two home games, while the Dolphins are 2-0 despite starting with two road games. Miami is arguably the best offensive team early in the season, ranking first in yards and third in points. Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passing yards and should be able to exploit a defense that just allowed 299 passing yards and two touchdowns to Washington’s Sam Howell. Miami (-7) is forecasted to cover well over 50% of the time, and the model also says the Under (47) hits in over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 3 NFL picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 3 NFL schedule, and it’s identified two must-see underdogs who pull off huge upsets. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which two underdogs stun the league? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.

Week 3 NFL odds, lines, spreads

Get full NFL picks at SportsLine

Thursday, Sept. 21

Giants at 49ers (-10, 45)

Sunday, Sept. 24

Colts at Ravens (-8, 44.5)

Titans at Browns (-4.5, 41.5)

Falcons at Lions (-4, 46.5)

Saints at Packers (-2, 43)

Texans at Jaguars (-9, 45.5)

Broncos at Dolphins (-7, 47)

Chargers at Vikings (+1, 51.5)

Patriots at Jets (+2, 37.5)

Bills at Commanders (+6.5, 45.5)

Panthers at Seahawks (-4.5, 42.5)

Cowboys at Cardinals (+12.5, 43.5)

Bears at Chiefs (-12.5, 49)

Steelers at Raiders (+1, 44)

Eagles at Buccaneers (+6.5, 44.5)

Monday, Sept. 25

Rams at Bengals (-5.5, 46)

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