One match into a 38-game season is of course much too early to offer a clearcut sense of where the title might be heading, but the opening weekend of the Premier League season did nothing to disabuse anyone of the notion that it promises to be the same three way tussle for supremacy that it was 12 months ago. Before a ball was kicked, Liverpool and Arsenal looked the only teams capable of wrestling the title off Manchester City. After 1361 such kicks on Saturday afternoon, they got their job done, setting the standard with 2-0 wins over Ipswich and Wolves that Manchester City repeated against Chelsea.
It might be much too soon to draw hard and fast conclusions about the destiny of the title, but it has never been premature to ask questions. With that in mind, here’s what the trio of 2-0 wins have got us pondering.
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Man City: What are Guardiola and De Bruyne cooking?
After two and a half seasons of relatively minimal tweaking, both in terms of starting personnel and system, Pep Guardiola seems intent on doing Premier League title No.7 on hard mode, or as hard as it gets when you have a nation state backing you up. A squad that has generally been designed to dice with injury crises already looked down to the bare bones on Sunday with Rodri absent and Julian Alvarez gone, the young Argentine the sort of tactically adept hybrid forward who is hard to find even with Manchester City’s wealth. Mateo Kovacic filled in admirably for the former and a replacement for the latter may yet be purchased with the champions expected to be active in the market before next Friday’s deadline.
In the meantime, a relative paucity of options brought innovation from Guardiola at Stamford Bridge, some more lasting than others. With Phil Foden confined to the bench after his Euro 2024 travails, starting berths were handed to Jeremy Doku and Savinho, each winger beginning the match lined up on their “natural” flank. The left footed Savinho start on the left, Doku the right. It immediately brought to mind those early Guardiola City sides where Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane crashed to the bylines, low cut backs for free eights to roll into the bottom corner. Given that one of the few areas of the squad with requisite numbers is at winger, might we even see Guardiola reprise the Bayern Munich every winger, everywhere all at once approach that created so many chances for a static center forward? Robert Lewandowski feasted in that system, Erling Haaland surely would do the same.
On this occasion it did not quite work out like that. Marc Cucurella started particularly brightly without the ball and seemed to be at ease with Doku attacking his stronger left side. Within 15 minutes the City wingers had switched back to more inverted roles even as Guardiola continued to probe down the flanks.
It was the system change that wasn’t made that proved to be the most intriguing. For nigh on a decade Kevin De Bruyne has been the artist in residence on City’s right half space. While everyone else buzzes across the pitch, the Belgian gets into his zone and weaves his familiar patterns: the hung up crosses to the back post, the slipped passes through the line for an overlapping Kyle Walker, the odd low shot through the bodies. Not on this occasion. While Bernardo Silva jinked across midfield, De Bruyne was more steadfast in the inside left channel.
From that new spot De Bruyne was a little more subdued than he often is on his return to Stamford Bridge, though a couple of sighters from outside the box might well have left Robert Sanchez stranded if they’d had enough bend on them to get back inside the post. Were this to be a move for the long term, switching the Belgian across to the left side of the pitch might open up more shooting opportunities for him, his natural curve giving that the same threat that the crosses of previous years might.
Equally, De Bruyne’s shifting out to the left might simply have been to accommodate Rico Lewis, the impressive youngster who inverted from right back to aid Mateo Kovacic in controlling midfield. Lewis was prepared to push further ahead of the Croatia international when the time was right, most notably for City’s opening goal.
Silva, the free man in City’s midfield, has drifted across to the left, where De Bruyne is already occupying Gusto. Wesley Fofana has to take Silva, Levi Colwill is on Haaland and between them is a chasm that might have been filled by Lewis if the move went another way. Instead, Doku gets away from Caicedo, Lavia is trying to both block the pass to Lewis and any shot from the man on the ball, but cannot do that and stop a pass to Silva. From there it is simply a matter of City players in space executing with ease. Whether on the right flank or the left, the gravitational force of De Bruyne has its way of dragging opponents into just the spots they don’t want to be.
Will this last? The extremely active coaching conversations between Guardiola and De Bruyne throughout the game suggested they were not in play around and suss out mood while they plugged a few gaps in the XI. When Walker is good to go from the off it may just be that City get De Bruyne back into the right sided zone where he is most effective. But Walker, 34, will eventually run out of gas and Lewis looks too adept not to be afforded a serious role this season, even if that means switching De Bruyne’s side.
Is Arsenal’s midfield where it needs to be?
Though this season’s contenders may remain the same, there has been a role reversal in one facet of Manchester City and Arsenal’s rivalry. Twelve months ago the Gunners came into the season with all sorts of questions about how their talent might coalesce into an XI as City merely rolled out what they knew would work. This time around Mikel Arteta’s side look utterly at ease with themselves. There may be honing to come in specific spots, but for the most part this XI looks set, from Kai Havertz at the top of the side to David Raya at the base.
Oleksandr Zinchenko may yet have a battle on with Riccardo Calafiori and Jurrien Timber gunning for full back spots, but he started out manfully in looking to keep hold of his place in the XI, getting Arsenal up the field with zip and precision. When he and Thomas Partey click at the base of midfield, the Gunners can really control the tempo of any contest, as they did in the first half on Saturday. The issue is that when this front-footed duo go awry, Arsenal can quickly find themselves pegged back in their own third, when usually they are so effective at playing the game where they want to.
That is what happened in the second half against Wolves, where Partey in particular made several costly giveaways that invited pressure on his teammates. In the 47th minute a heavy touch gave the ball straight to Hwang Hee-chan, Zinchenko scurrying across to quell the danger. Just after the hour he dawdled and had the ball stolen off him by Rodrigo Gomes, Rayan Ait-Nouri smashing an effort just wide of David Raya’s goal. For a team who might feel they lost the title last season because of the points they gave up to ordinary opposition such as Fulham and West Ham, these sorts of basic giveaways run the risk of having huge ramifications.
There are other options that might mitigate some of the risks in midfield. Jorginho is largely more steady, though like Partey he is short on pace. Declan Rice could drop deeper from his role on the left side of midfield, a scenario that would become all the more likely if and when Mikel Merino arrives from Real Sociedad. Face-to-face talks between the two clubs progressed well last week with the San Sebastian side already resigned to parting ways with their European champion midfielder.
Merino would add physicality and aerial threat to Arsenal’s midfield in much the same way that Havertz was expected to, before it became apparent to him and Arteta that he was better served leading the line. However, Rice is not quite as adept at breaking lines with his passing, would the presence of Merino in the XI compel Arteta to move Odegaard deeper in build up? That has worked before for Arsenal, but, given the Norwegian’s menacing form in preseason, there is a strong argument to get him near to goal. Would Rice sitting deep also require the presence of Zinchenko and all his defensive foibles to aid on the progression front?
Ultimately, this is all a luxury headache for Arteta, who has spoken about a desire to add greater versatility and variety to his squad. There will doubtless be games where it makes sense to go for the steadying head of Jorginho at the base and others where Rice’s muscularity is the natural choice. What the default setting is might only be clear when Merino is in the building.
Which Liverpool was the real one?
Of all the putative title contenders, Liverpool are the hardest to read. It isn’t just that they have a new manager, and no matter how excellent Arne Slot proves to be the bar set by Jurgen Klopp will almost certainly be out of reach. Liverpool are trying to replace one of the greatest coaches of the 21st century. It is unlikely they will do so with another of the greatest coaches of the 21st century.
Anyway, it is not really that which makes Liverpool a hard early read. Even with the Portman Road on the opening day factor, Ipswich Town are one of the more favorable assignments for a title contender. The Tractor Boys were taught the lessons they need to learn fast in the second half, Mohamed Salah twice getting away from Leif Davis, one of several who have been along on the whole ride from League One to the Premier League. Mistakes that might be rarely punished in the third tier do not pass the likes of Salah by.
Equally, Liverpool themselves were hardly error-free in the first half. The back three they formed in possession was not quick enough out to the flanks when the ball was turned over ahead of them, opening up several avenues towards goal for Omari Hutchinson. When Slot’s men did get into the final third they struggled to get attempts away; in the first half they were outshot by Ipswich and before Diogo Jota’s opening goal the Reds were barely shading it on xG, 0.47 to 0.31.
For Slot, the greatest cause for concern was weakness in the challenges. “There’s no point talking about tactics if we don’t win our duels,” is the sort of opening line that can go on to define a coach’s tenure for the better, particularly when they can point to a tangible change brought about by their emphasis. In the first half Liverpool won 41.5% of their duels. In the second that number rocketed to 54.5%, the base point for a dramatically improved performance.
Was that the starting point for what we can expect from Liverpool against Brentford and Manchester United in the coming weeks? Or is the reality of life under a new coach that there will be a few more false starts before his players don’t need to be told what to change? More so than any of the other clubs in the likely title mix, it is hard to tell.
