Twenty horses will line up at Churchill Downs on Saturday for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, and the field consists of 19 colts and one gelding. The outlier is Burnham Square, who will become the 136th gelding to compete in the Run for the Roses. Mine That Bird (2009) was the last gelding to get draped in the lush blanket of roses following his victory, but the last nine geldings have finished 11th or worse. Burnham Square has higher expectations for the Kentucky Derby 2025 since he’s looking to hit the board for the seventh time in seven starts. The Blue Grass Stakes victor is a 12-1 longshot, according to the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.
How will he stack up against the other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses like Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1)? Post time is at 6:57 p.m. ET, and longshots in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field include Tiztastic (20-1) and Owen Almighty (30-1). Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and 2025 Kentucky Derby futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling, considering his domination of this race.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One surprise: Demling is fading Rodriguez (12-1), who barely cracks the top 10 finishers in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Rodriguez has a pair of career wins, most notably taking the Wood Memorial, a key prep race, in April. He held off fellow Kentucky Derby horse Grande to win that race at Aqueduct Racetrack in New York.
His Wood Memorial win is getting most of the attention, but he also had a bit of a concerning third-place run at the San Felipe Stakes and a runner-up finish at the Robert B. Lewis Stakes against a mediocre field. Demling has found nine other horses he likes better, including several with significantly longer odds, so Rodriguez is one of the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to fade. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Demling just revealed in his 2025 Kentucky Derby prediction for Sandman, who is third in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025 at 6-1. Sandman won the Arkansas Derby on March 29 for his third victory in eight career races and to continue his streak of five straight top-three finishes. Sandman is the son of Tapit, who has been the No. 1 earning sire in three of the last 10 years and is one of the most profitable sires of all-time.
Although Sandman has three career victories, none of those came over his three runs at Churchill Downs. Sandman has only one top-three result at Churchill Downs, finishing third in the Street Sense in October, and he was fifth in his other two runs at Churchill Downs. Those were three of his first four career races, though, and Sandman performed better over his last four starts at Oaklawn Park, so it’ll be interesting to see which version of Sandman shows up in his return to Churchill Downs.
Demling has also locked in his 2025 Kentucky Derby picks for Journalism, the 3-1 favorite. Based out of Southern California, Journalism placed third in his first race and has since won his ensuing four starts. All five races come in California, so he’ll have to adjust to a new track and new environment at Churchill Downs. Journalism has three stakes victories on his resume, including in the Santa Anita Derby, but some question whether he’s truly been tested. He’s only beaten two other horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, and both are double-digit longshots.
Journalism is sired by the 2007 American Champion 3-year-old, Curlin, who won seven Grade 1 races back in his day. However, Curlin has yet to sire a horse that’s won a Triple Crown race. The pedigree is still strong, nonetheless, as Curlin’s grandsons won two of the last three Kentucky Derbies: Mage (2023) and Rich Strike (2022). Journalism will look to bring the first Derby victory to both trainer, Michael McCarthy, and jockey, Umberto Rispoli. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a huge double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
2025 Kentucky Derby horse profiles
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 4 Rodriguez | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty