STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — A prosperous Penn State season had been cresting to this moment, the potential hinge point on which James Franklin’s tenure could finally turn for the better and vault the Nittany Lions even higher.
It would get there, provided Franklin could coach his team to a win over one of the biggest brands and most feared teams in college football. Ohio State. Then again, that’s been the issue for most of his decade-plus running the sport‘s premier coulda-shoulda-woulda program.
So here was Penn State in the thick of the mania, late in the fourth quarter. A record-setting 111,030 souls on hand to see one of the most significant home games in Penn State’s history (and the first top-five game at this stadium since 1999, vs. then-No. 4 Arizona). Somehow, after a peculiar afternoon filled with freakish turnovers, reversed calls from officials and regrettable play calls from both head coaches through 50-plus minutes of play, No. 3 PSU was in position to put the outcome in doubt against fourth-ranked Ohio State. A PSU first-and-goal from the 3-yard line came after tight end Tyler Warren scampered for 33 yards — off a well-timed direct snap, no less.
This was the spot for PSU to, at minimum, put the game in place to get to overtime, if not boldly go for the two-point conversation and finally elevate Franklin’s not-quite-good-enough reputation. Instead, a maddening lack of creativity from an offense that had redefined it at a time when the Nittany Lions arguably needed it most. Three failed opportunities on near-identical inside handoffs to running back Kaytron Allen were followed up by a quick-and-tough pass by Drew Allar into traffic against a frenzied Buckeyes defense. It was 20-13 and there was 5:13 remaining. Somehow, Franklin’s offense walked off the field with no points on the drive.
Then Penn State couldn’t get Ohio State off the field the rest of the way.
Buckeyes 20, Nittany Lions 13. Final.
The botched foursome of play calls was the second time on Saturday that Penn State failed to score after starting with a first-and-goal from the 3. Saturday was, additionally, the first time since 2014 that the Nittany Lions failed to score an offensive touchdown. The loss means Franklin’s 0-7 in his last seven games against the two best programs in the Big Ten as of late, Ohio State and Michigan. Against all other teams, Franklin is 35-5. The Buckeyes’ seven-game win streak over the Nits is the longest of its kind in the history of the series.
Penn State fans are obviously sick of this. It’s the same old story.
But now, an optimistic twist.
In most seasons, the calamity that clinched the game in Ohio State’s favor would have defined a good-but-disappointing season for Penn State. Just the latest in an awkward string of coulda-woulda-shoulda campaigns from Franklin. In a different year, how much more would there be to play for, on a macro level?
But this year is different. This year doesn’t have to, and likely won’t, end for Penn State the way it has all the years prior. Which is to say: PSU is plenty good enough to be in the College Football Playoff, and probably will be getting an invite.
“The reality of college football is everything is still ahead of us,” Franklin said after the game.
He’s right. Ohio State is 7-1. So is Penn State. They’re both squarely in the playoff picture. Saturday was a huge game, but it wasn’t a do-or-die affair. College football’s season is enhanced because it’s national championship bracket is finally in harmony with its regular season.
Ohio State’s CFP hopes were saved because of not just the win, but by pulling off what will be one of the most impressive degree-of-difficulty wins any team will claim come December. OSU went 1-1 in its top-five road tests vs. Oregon and Penn State. Even with all of the heat on Ryan Day and his purported $20 million roster, 1-1 in two top-five matchups away from home is plenty acceptable. The 12-team Playoff allows what this sport should have afforded a long time ago: room for error. Specifically: room for error in closely played games against the best teams. The four-team CFP had some of that, sure, but Penn State’s prospects in a four-team CFP would’ve been razor-thin from here on out.
Although evidence continues to lack that Franklin can guide Penn State to a meaningful win over a really good team — he’s now 1-12 vs. top-five-ranked opponents at Penn State; yikes, man — he’s going to have more chances in December.
“I understand their frustration,” Franklin said of PSU fans. “Guys in the locker room are just as frustrated, if not more, but college football has changed and we have an opportunity moving forward to right some wrongs from today.”
So, for the betterment of Penn State and its fan base, the Nittany Lions are still comfortably on their way to the CFP. Avoiding a second loss prior to December will be paramount to keeping that pace, but to this point, there’s little to suggest against it. Franklin has coached his way into a weird arrangement. His teams almost always beat the teams they are supposed to. But in the most meaningful games, where the stakes are palpable and the rewards the most important, his teams cannot finish.
There isn’t another team like Penn State in college football at present. Franklin basically said as much Saturday.
“Ninety-nine percent of programs across college football would die to do what we’ve been able to do in our time here,” Franklin said. “But I also understand when you’re at a place like Penn State there’s really high, high expectations … I get it. I totally get it.”
The beauty of this new era of college football in the expanded CFP landscape: In almost any other previous season, Penn State’s national title hopes would’ve been extinguished. There’s another upside: The 12-team bracket will also provide another level of clarity. At a salary of nearly $9 million annually, and with a solid record at PSU (95-40), it’s hard to see how Franklin’s job is in any trouble. But, fair or not, CFP performance can expedite the arbitration process.
At this stage, Penn State not only is still comfortably tracking to play in the playoff … there’s a chance this result could boost the program in the form of a postseason home game. While any fan base would gladly take the bye due to winning a conference title game, the consolation for Penn State may well be as a 5-, 6-, 7- or 8-seed that gets to host a CFP game at Beaver Stadium. Though it’s hard to see it now, there’s a chance that Saturday’s loss winds up benefiting the school; some believe playing (and losing) in a Power Four championship game has drawbacks given the way the calendar will play out.
A home loss to a top-five team shouldn’t eliminate another top-10 team from title contention. For far too long, that was the threat in college football. Now it no longer is. Maybe James Franklin’s fatal flaw is his inability to beat great teams. But if he can get to the end of the regular season with only one loss, Penn State’s program deserve a chance to play in a bracket and see if things are different when the circumstances are more urgent. Maybe redemption awaits this program.
Regardless, college football has its fairest system yet. There’s a great balance here. The regular season — into November — carries so much significant for dozens of teams still chasing CFP inclusion. But the bracket is still a reasonable size (12). The sport has been worse off for not having teams as well-rounded and competitive as Penn State in its championship field in years past. No more.
The opportunity of an expanded field also invites even more scrutiny and relentless fan expectation. Just ask college basketball coaches who’ve dealt with the absurd amount of pressure of March Madness for decades. When a sport becomes much more about its postseason than its regular season, the calculus changes. The CFP isn’t going to be the NCAA Tournament, but its new format is going to reward — and punish – programs on a scale much closer to college basketball.
That’s a very good thing for college football. Whether it’s a very good thing for James Franklin … it sort of feels like we already know the answer.
