The fifth and penultimate edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings were released Tuesday night with undefeated Oregon maintaining its spot at No. 1 as has been the case in every set of rankings during this initial year of the expanded 12-team field. The only remaining undefeated team in the FBS, the Ducks sit in the top slot seeking to make their second playoff appearance overall — first since the four-team field debuted after the 2014 season — entering conference championship weekend.
Seven of 10 teams ranked No. 1 in a season’s initial CFP Rankings ultimately reached the playoff in the four-team era with Mississippi State (2014), Tennessee (2022) and Ohio State (2023) being the exceptions. With eight more spots in the field this season, Oregon sits in a strong position at 11-0 as the only remaining undefeated program in the nation.
Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Georgia round out the top five with the Bulldogs replacing Ohio State, which fell to Michigan in The Game last Saturday but retained a spot in the projected 12-team field.
In the battle for the final playoff positions among the three-loss SEC teams and Miami, it is Alabama that presently stands on top of not only the Hurricanes but Ole Miss and South Carolina.
The top Group of Five program in Tuesday’s release remained Boise State at No. 10, its highest ranking yet this season. With the 12-team playoff model granting automatic bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions, the Broncos stand in pole position to earn that opportunity should they win their league. At this juncture, they would receive a bye. Other Group of Five teams in this week’s rankings are UNLV (20), Army West Point (24) and Memphis (25).
Let’s take a look at the entire CFP Rankings top 25 along with the projected bracket seedings for the first 12 teams. Check out analysis by bowls expert Jerry Palm below.
College Football Playoff Rankings, Dec. 3
- Oregon (12-0) | Projected No. 1 seed
- Texas (11-1) | Projected No. 2 seed
- Penn State (11-1) | Projected No. 5 seed
- Notre Dame (11-1) | Projected No. 6 seed
- Georgia (10-2) | Projected No. 7 seed
- Ohio State (10-2) | Projected No. 8 seed
- Tennessee (10-2) | Projected No. 9 seed
- SMU (11-1) | Projected No. 3 seed
- Indiana (11-1) | Projected No. 10 seed
- Boise State (11-1) | Projected No. 4 seed
- Alabama (9-3) | Projected No. 11 seed
- Miami (10-2)
- Ole Miss (9-3)
- South Carolina (9-3)
- Arizona State (10-2) | Projected No. 12 seed
- Iowa State (10-2)
- Clemson (9-3)
- BYU (10-2)
- Missouri (9-3)
- UNLV (10-2)
- Illinois (9-3)
- Syracuse (9-3)
- Colorado (9-3)
- Army West Point (10-1)
- Memphis (10-2)
Analysis by bowl expert Jerry Palm
One of the most reliable behaviors of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee over the last decade has been teams sitting idle over conference championship weekend not seeing much of a change in their rankings status. It is possible for teams that are playing to move about among them, but their position relative to each other does not change.
That has been universally true … except on one occasion.
It was back in 2014, the first year of the CFP, when the final weekend was not just championship games. Michigan State was two spots ahead of Mississippi State entering the final weekend with Kansas State sandwiched in between. The Wildcats lost that weekend, and when the final rankings were released, the Bulldogs had jumped one spot ahead of the Spartans. Nine years of consistency gives us pretty good reason to believe that will be the case against this season.
That means that the cutline between No. 10 Alabama (in) and No. 11 ranked Miami (out) will be the cutline on Sunday as well. The losers of the Big Ten and SEC title games will stay high enough in the rankings to remain in the playoff. If No. 8 SMU were to lose, however, they would be replaced by No. 17 Clemson in the field as the conference champion. But, I think it is unlikely that the Mustangs would stay high enough in the rankings to remain an at-large team with a loss. Clemson may not jump SMU because it would have one fewer loss, but I would not be at all surprised if SMU fell below Miami.
Keep in mind that there is no special reward for winning the regular season in the eyes of the CFP Selection Committee. There is no head-to-head result between the Mustangs and Hurricanes, so they would simply be evaluated as any other two teams would.
SMU’s situation, in that regard, would be different than if Georgia or Penn State lost. The selection committee has historically been very kind to lower-ranked teams that lose their conference championship games as long as the game is competitive. The same consideration has not applied when the higher-ranked team loses. It is no given that the Mustangs stay in the field as an at-large team with a loss to a team ranked nine spots below them.
So, as of today, the at-large teams would be, in order: Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana and Alabama. Two of those teams are playing on Saturday, though, so it could change. Miami is the first team out, but as we just examined, the Hurricanes could still find a way in. SMU is the only other team is in play for an at-large spot if it needs it.
