The dust has settled on the election process of the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame class. We now know that Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia are first-ballot Hall of Famers while Billy Wagner made it in his 10th and final try.
Something we like to do in these parts to put a bow on Hall of Fame season is to look at the current players. That is, what active players are Hall of Famers or are well on their way?
I am not going to forecast how players fare moving forward here. This exercise is looking at the current foundation that players have in place.
The locks
This means any of the following players could retire right now and make the Hall of Fame. We aren’t assuming things will happen in the future. No, the résumé as it stands is already Hall-worthy. Right off the top, this means any players with less than 10 years of service time can’t be included, as the Hall of Fame requires 10 years.
Mike Trout – He hasn’t been able to stay healthy since 2020, but Trout still has three MVPs, a career slash line of .299/.410/.581 (173 OPS+) and sits fifth in JAWS among center fielders.
Justin Verlander – I’m sure he’d love to hold on for 300 wins, but that ain’t happening. Regardless, Verlander has won 262 games, three Cy Youngs, an MVP, two World Series rings and has more than 3,400 strikeouts. He’ll top 90% in Hall of Fame voting.
Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw will also top 90% and both he and Verlander both probably climb close to 100%. Kershaw also has three Cy Youngs, an MVP and two rings. He has won five ERA titles and sits 32 strikeouts away from 3,000.
Max Scherzer – Hey, another three-time Cy Young winner with two rings. Scherzer has more than 3,400 strikeouts and led the league in wins four times.
Mookie Betts – I think I’ll get pushback here that Betts is already in. My rationale is that it would take something drastic to prevent him from playing ever again and, if that were the case, he’d get a pass on some of the counting stats and would make the Hall as a peak candidate. He has an MVP and has finished second in voting three times. He’s won three World Series. He’d led the majors in WAR three times. He’s long been exceptional at nearly everything, to the point that he was moved from right field to second base and then to shortstop. Currently, he’s eighth among right fielders in JAWS, sitting ahead of Reggie Jackson with Al Kaline in reach next.
On the cusp
It’s possible the following players already have Hall of Fame résumés, but it’s also possible they wouldn’t make the cut. For some, just stay the course. For others, a slight nudge forward solidifies things. To be clear, I think every player mentioned in this section is going to be a Hall of Famer. They just might not make it as things stand today.
Paul Goldschmidt – I think he’s probably in. At present, Goldschmidt is almost exactly at the average Hall of Fame first baseman in JAWS and WAR. He has an MVP and is a career .289/.381/.510 (139 OPS+) hitter. He’s over 2,000 hits, but there might be concern with 446 doubles, 362 home runs, 1,187 RBI and 1,204 runs from a first baseman.
Freddie Freeman – It’s difficult to envision a world where Freeman doesn’t move into the above category pretty quickly. He might already be there. He has an MVP and two World Series rings and we can tack on top that his World Series MVP heroics this past October. It was one for the ages. He’s a career .300 hitter with a 142 OPS+. He’s the active leader in runs (1,298), hits (2,267), doubles (508) and RBI (1,232) while also having 343 home runs. Right now, though, he’s with Keith Hernandez in WAR and JAWS.
Manny Machado – He’s still only 32, so he’s headed to Cooperstown, but, again, we’re only going on what we’ve seen to this point. Machado has 1,900 hits, 363 doubles, 342 homers, 1,049 RBI, 991 runs and sits 20th in JAWS at third base.
Nolan Arenado – Ahead of Machado in JAWS (Arenado sits 18th), but a touch older. Arenado heads to his age-34 season. He has a 120 career OPS+ with 1,826 hits, 387 doubles, 341 home runs, 1,132 RBI, 944 runs and an unfair Coors Field stigma to fight. The defensive wizardry should help mitigate some of that, but this isn’t a done deal.
Chris Sale – Fresh off his first Cy Young award, Sale has moved to 76th in starting pitcher JAWS. He’s ahead of Mark Buehrle and Andy Pettitte, who are hanging around on the ballot, and likely will garner a lot more support. Will the low win total hinder him? He’s at 138. The 2,414 strikeouts feel low for a strikeout artist who is soon to be 36 years old, too.
Bryce Harper – He sits just 29th in JAWS, well below the Hall of Fame average and just about the same as Brian Giles. There’s more to Harper, though, notably a “feel” and “fame” factor. I think the two-time MVP eventually gets his numbers to where this isn’t really a question — he’s 32 — but for now the 1,670 hits, 369 doubles, 336 homers, 976 RBI and 1,082 runs are light. He’s a career .281/.389/.522 (143 OPS+) hitter.
Francisco Lindor – A monster 2024 campaign shot Lindor up to 20th in JAWS among shortstops. He’s still below the average Hall of Famer, but isn’t far off. He’s a .274 hitter with a 119 OPS+ along with 185 stolen bases and exceptional defense at a premium position. He’s a “heart and soul of the team” guy and that can provide bonus points. The counting stats right now: 1,492 hits, 304 doubles, 248 homers, 770 RBI, 894 runs.
José Ramírez – He’s 21st in JAWS at third, just behind Arenado, Evan Longoria and Machado, respectively. Ramírez has finished second in MVP voting once, third twice, fourth once, fifth once and sixth once. He has exactly 1,500 hits with 364 doubles, 255 homers, 864 RBI, 898 runs and 243 steals with a 130 OPS and .279 average.
On track
The following players look like they are headed toward the Hall of Fame, but there’s still a little something holding them back and that could be rectified here in the next few years.
Jose Altuve – He’d be listed somewhere above, but we’re seeing now that it’s been an uphill battle for Carlos Beltrán to get in after the Astros sign-stealing scandal in 2017. Beltrán was in his final season and barely played on that team. Altuve was the MVP that season and right in the middle of his prime. I still think I’ll end up voting for him, but I feel like it’s going to be a very tough fight for Altuve. As for the numbers, he’s a career .306 hitter with a 129 OPS+, 2,232 hits, 431 doubles, 229 homers, 812 RBI, 1,156 runs, 315 steals and one of the most gaudy postseason ledgers in history. He’s 20th in JAWS at second base and is 34 years old.
Aaron Judge – We can’t go any higher than this yet, as Judge only has nine years of service time. The two-time MVP has unbelievable stature that’ll help down the road in voting. He’s a .288 hitter with a .406 on-base percentage and .604 slugging (173 OPS+). The counting stats might feel light right now: 1,026 hits, 173 doubles, 315 homers, 716 RBI and 736 runs. He is 18th in JAWS, one spot behind Ichiro and ahead of players like Dave Winfield and Vladimir Guerrero.
Shohei Ohtani – He only has seven years of service time. I don’t even think the numbers matter. Once Ohtani gets to 10 years, he’s a lock, but he’s still a few seasons away from that.
Gerrit Cole – There’s certainly a “feel” to Cole, no? When you wonder what a Hall of Fame pitcher looks like in our current game, he’s on the short list of the players who come to mind. He’s won a Cy Young and has two ERA titles. Right now, Cole has 153 wins and 2,251 strikeouts in 1,954 innings. Some of us are working hard on loosening the standards for starting pitchers in this era to make the Hall of Fame, but that doesn’t mean everyone is on board. In starting pitching JAWS, Cole sits 152nd, behind pitchers like Steve Rogers, Vida Blue and Mickey Lolich.
Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and/or Craig Kimbrel?
I have the question mark there because I’m not sure how closers will fare on the ballots as we move forward. Billy Wagner getting into Cooperstown seems like it should be a good sign, but it took Wagner 10 tries and he barely made it. The biggest obstacle Wagner had to overcome was his 903 career innings pitched. Jansen has 868 ⅓, Kimbrel 809 ⅔ and Chapman 760. If the best of the best closers by generation get in, these three would be strong selections, but how will the voting body deal with this workload shortfall compared to the other Hall of Fame relievers?
Work to be done
Here, I will point out a little bit of what needs to come next, because every player here is short of the Hall of Fame but still has a chance to get there. They just have some heavy lifting in front of them.
Andrew McCutchen – I think Cutch is going to fall just short. He’s got the MVP and was a high-profile superstar for a quick stretch, but fell quickly. After four straight top-five MVP finishes through age 28, he never again made an All-Star team or got another down-ballot MVP vote. He’s now 38 with a career .273/.367/.462 (129 OPS+) line and 2,152 hits, 429 doubles, 319 homers, 1,095 RBI, 1,239 runs and sits 28th in JAWS among center fielders.
Marcus Semien – He’s up to 25th in JAWS at second base, flanked by Hall of Famer Nellie Fox and utility man extraordinaire Tony Phillips. Ben Zobrist and Chuck Knoblauch are the next two after Phillips, for those curious. A late bloomer, Semien didn’t have an elite season until age 28, but he’s been awesome since then, racking up 33 WAR in five full seasons plus 2020. In all, though, he’s a .255 hitter with a 110 OPS+, 1,505 hits, 307 doubles, 238 homers, 739 RBI and 906 runs. He’s 34.
Jacob deGrom – A Félix Hernández induction could help pave the way for deGrom as a peak starting pitcher candidate. He’s only made 218 career starts and won 84 games, but when he’s on the mound, it’s an absolute thing of beauty and must-watch baseball. The two-time Cy Young winner has the “feel” factor, for sure. He also has a career 2.52 ERA (156 ERA+) and 0.99 WHIP with 1,666 strikeouts in 1,367 innings. He’s 36, though, and really needs to ramp up that workload.
Giancarlo Stanton – This comes down to one thing, I think. Stanton has 429 career home runs right now. For non-PED guys, 500 has always been automatic, so why should it change with Stanton? He has averaged 29 homers a season for the past four years, is 35 years old and is signed through 2027. Even if he only plays these next three years, it seems reasonable to believe he hits 71 more homers. Wouldn’t that be enough?
Carlos Correa – Believe it or not, he has 10 years of service time now. He’s over 1,000 hits while having also topped 600 RBI and runs with 187 home runs and a slick glove, not to mention some monster postseason numbers. He’s 31st among shortstops in JAWS and is still only 30 years old.
Christian Yelich – Yelich has an MVP and a runner-up finish, but injuries starting in 2019 have derailed him a bit. I wouldn’t have included him here last year, but in 73 games before injury last season, he looked like his old self. A career .287 hitter with a 130 OPS+, 1,590 hits, 306 doubles, 204 homers, 748 RBI, 945 runs and 205 steals, there’s a path for Yelich, but it involves playing like an MVP for a few more seasons. He’s 33 and sits 42nd among left fielders in JAWS.
Xander Bogaerts – The only reason Bogaerts is here is because he has 1,693 hits heading to his age-32 season. It’s unlikely, but if he makes a run for 3,000, he’s got a shot at the Hall.
Salvador Perez – Perez is 32nd in catcher JAWS, but if there’s one position where a player can get around stats, it’s catcher. He doesn’t quite have the reputation of Yadier Molina, but he feels like a similar candidate. He could help his own cause by topping 2,000 hits (he’s at 1,571) and 300 home runs (273), I think.
Zack Wheeler – Take note of the ongoing discussion that we’d like to start including more starting pitchers. Wheeler has been a beast for years. After Cole won in 2023 and Sale in 2024, Wheeler is probably now the most accomplished active pitcher without a Cy Young. The problem? He’ll be 35 next season and he has only 103 wins and 1,625 strikeouts in his career. He’s all the way down at 196 in JAWS. He needs to keep pitching like an ace another handful of seasons, for starters.
Blake Snell – It’s hard to see him getting there, but would it surprise anyone if Snell stacked up two more Cy Youngs? If he won four, he’d join Roger Clemens (7), Randy Johnson (5), Steve Carlton and Greg Maddux as the only players with at least four. It would be awfully difficult to keep him out if this happened. Even a third probably makes him a legitimate candidate.
Firm foundation
These players are several years away from consideration, but there are at least two who already have that “Hall of Fame” feel with others building a nice little foundation here.
Juan Soto – He only has seven years of service time. Then again, he’s only 26 years old. He’s the active leader with a .421 OBP and has a 160 OPS+. He’s already over 200 homers along with 592 RBI, 655 runs and 934 hits. Again, he’s 26. The most statistically similar players through age 25 to Soto? Harper, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr., Trout, Andruw Jones, Eddie Mathews, Miguel Cabrera and Mickey Mantle. Holy smokes.
Ronald Acuña Jr. – Tearing his ACL midseason twice puts a damper on things, but he’s such a dynamic talent that there’s no doubting his ability to round out a Hall of Fame career. He’s now 27 and has 815 hits, 165 home runs and 196 stolen bases.
Bobby Witt Jr. – Witt doesn’t turn 25 until next June. He already has 538 hits, 104 doubles, 82 homers, 285 RBI, 304 runs and 110 steals. The only Royals players to ever post a 9+ WAR season are Witt and George Brett. The latter didn’t do it until he was 27.
There are a decent number of other young players who have a nice start, including but not necessarily limited to Yordan Alvarez Rafael Devers, Kyle Tucker, Fernando Tatis Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll.
If we wanted to look at pitchers, Spencer Strider and Hunter Greene are young enough with good enough starts, but it’s such a long road forward and both have already dealt with major surgery.
Looking at closers, Edwin Díaz, Josh Hader, Emmanuel Clase could build cases, but it’s so hard to know how things will unfold with this volatile position.
And, among the incredibly young and relatively inexperienced, the likes of Jackson Chourio, Jackson Merrill, Elly De La Cruz and, yep, Paul Skenes are off to quite a good start. It’s just so far off that there’s no need to elaborate more than a quick mention.
