Less than three years ago, he was traded by the franchise he won a Super Bowl with. Eleven months ago, the Broncos benched him and eventually absorbed the biggest dead cap hit in NFL history.
And come March, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson could be the crown jewel of the free-agent quarterback class.
A weak free-agent class, coupled with a weak draft class, makes for an interesting supply-and-demand question for the league at its most important position. And Wilson, set to be an unrestricted free agent after this season, could have some options.
Wilson, 36, is currently playing on a one-year, $1.21 million veteran minimum contract in Pittsburgh, thanks to the Broncos still paying Wilson $39 million. The Steelers also have Justin Fields, who’s in the final year of his rookie contract and will also be an unrestricted free agent in March.
The Steelers famously do not negotiate during the season, so there’s no shot that an extension for anyone will take place until the season has concluded. And there’s a desire within the building to not only retain Wilson but also Fields.
The likely reality is the team will have to choose one in the offseason, and conventional wisdom would point to the franchise choosing the player it selected to start over a healthy Fields when the team was 4-2.
But if a recent survey of NFL executives is any indication, figuring out Wilson’s market is going to be difficult. Text responses around the league asking for the expected average-per-year contract for Wilson made for the NFL’s version of a Rorschach test.
- Executive 1: “Think a lot depends on how he finishes up the season and how Pittsburgh views him. If they make some noise in the playoffs, Geno [Smith] at [$25 million]. If he fizzles down the stretch, he’s a bridge/backup at [$10-12 million].”
- Executive 2: “I think he will get more than those top backup/bridge QB deals ($8-10 million), but not sold someone will pay him in the [$20 millions] to be their true starter like Jimmy [Garoppolo] and Geno got.”
- Executive 3: “I would rather have upside than Old Russ,” said one executive who set Wilson’s average per-year value at $10 million.
- Executive 4: “[$25-30 million]. Fair value would be that range.”
- Executive 5: “[$28-32 million]. They’ll add a fluff year on the backend to make it look better.”
- Executive 6: “[$30 to 35 million].”
- Executive 7: “Probably in [$30-35 million] range. A Baker Mayfield like deal. They may win their division with him as the starter and could get out of the wild-card round.”
So there you have it. NFL executives who make these types of decisions see Wilson getting anywhere between $10 million and $35 million per year on his next deal.
A $10 million deal would mirror Sam Darnold’s current contract with the Vikings. Darnold, a former No. 3 overall pick, is 27 years old and threw just 46 passes last year as the San Francisco backup before signing with the Vikings for what was expected to be a backup role.
The Smith contract averages $25 million-per-year with Wilson’s old club. And Mayfield averages $33 million after getting his deal with the Buccaneers in the offseason.
Smith and Mayfield were coming off Comeback Player of the Year-type seasons, with Smith actually winning the award. Wilson is 4-1 as a starter heading into Sunday’s game against the Bengals. He’s thrown seven touchdowns to two interceptions with wins against the Jets, Giants, Ravens and Commanders.
Several sources pointed to how image-conscious Wilson is, alluding to the belief that he wouldn’t take a below-market deal later in his career.
“I think he has a reputation for being very high maintenance and a lot to deal with,” said an eighth team executive who didn’t see any team paying him north of $30 million.
This will be the fourth veteran contract Wilson has signed in his career. After playing three years of his four-year, $3 million rookie contract, Wilson inked a four-year, $87.6 million extension with the Seahawks to be the highest-paid player in franchise history in 2015.
In 2019, Wilson broke his own Seahawks record by signing a four-year extension worth $140 million. And Seattle dealt him to Denver three years later for a draft-pick haul.
The Broncos did not immediately give Wilson a new contract upon trading for him because the team was in the process of being sold to the Walton-Penner ownership group. The NFL had just seen the Browns sign Deshaun Watson to a fully guaranteed $230 million contract, and there was hope among players, their representatives and the union that Wilson could keep that momentum.
Wilson was a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, who had nearly $200 million in career on-field earnings, whose new team had just traded the farm to get him, and whose team was owned by one of the richest families on this side of the planet. But Wilson didn’t demand a fully guaranteed deal and signed a five-year, $242.6 million deal that had about half the money guaranteed at signing. Whatever hope there may be for the fully guaranteed deals of the NBA and MLB was dashed.
It is far too early to determine what Wilson’s next contract would look like beyond the APY. Length of the deal and guaranteed money will all be determined later.
But a quarter of the league could have a different Week 1 starter next year. The Giants, Jets, Panthers, Raiders, Titans, Browns and Steelers are all among the teams with uncertain quarterback futures in 2025.
Along with Wilson, quarterbacks like Fields, Darnold, Daniel Jones, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton and Mac Jones are among those who are set to be free agents in 2025. And Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders are the two collegiate quarterbacks widely considered to be first-round picks in April’s draft.
The Steelers, meanwhile, haven’t had a quarterback account for more than 10% of their salary cap since Ben Roethlisberger’s final season in 2021. A deal for Wilson in Pittsburgh in the high $20 millions would get to that threshold.
Having just turned 36 this week, Wilson doesn’t have age on his side. But with a solid finish this season, there could be a market for Wilson inside and outside of Pittsburgh.
