The 2025 NFL playoffs feature the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs hosting the No. 4 seed Houston Texans in the Divisional Round on Saturday. The Chiefs went 15-2 in the regular season, earning the top seed and the first-round bye. Meanwhile, the Texans blew out the Los Angeles Chargers, 32-12, on Wild Card Weekend. In Week 16, these teams played each other, with Kansas City winning, 27-19. The winner moves to the AFC Championship Game to play the Buffalo Bills or Baltimore Ravens. Texans running back Joe Mixon will reportedly play through an ankle injury.
Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. Kansas City is an 8.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Texans odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 41.5. The Chiefs are -503 money-line favorites (risk $503 to win $100), while the Texans are +379 underdogs (risk $100 to win $379). Before locking in any Chiefs vs. Texans picks, bets or predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein has to say, considering his mastery of picks involving the Chiefs.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Hartstein’s weekly Vegas contest selections form the basis of his NFL best bets column, which is 79-48-2 (62.2%, +25.95 units) since its inception in 2022. He’s also an amazing 30-14 (+1302) on his last 44 NFL picks on the Chiefs. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, Hartstein has zoned in on Chiefs vs. Texans. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Here are the NFL odds and NFL betting lines for Chiefs vs. Texans:
- Chiefs vs. Texans spread: Kansas City -8.5
- Chiefs vs. Texans over/under: 41.5 points
- Chiefs vs. Texans money line: Kansas City -503, Houston +379
- HOU: Texans are 8-8-2 against the spread this season
- KC: Chiefs are 8-9 ATS this season
- Chiefs vs. Texans picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Chiefs vs. Texans streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Texans can cover
Quarterback C.J. Stroud has secured two postseason wins in the first two years of his career. This season, he threw for 3,727 passing yards and 20 passing touchdowns. In the win over the Chargers, Stroud went 22-of-33 for 282 yards and a TD. He also added 42 yards on the ground.
Receiver Nico Collins is the main threat in the passing attack for the Texans, winning on all three levels of the field. In the Wild Card win, Collins had seven grabs for 122 yards and a score. In addition, running back Joe Mixon (questionable) has been productive. Mixon had 1,016 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns this season. In his last outing, the 28-year-old had 106 rushing yards and a touchdown. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why the Chiefs can cover
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has guided the Chiefs to the postseason for seven straight years. In 18 career playoff games, Mahomes has completed 76% of his throws for 5,135 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’s also 12-2 at Arrowhead Stadium as the starter in the NFL playoffs.
Tight end Travis Kelce gives Kansas City another reliable playoff contributor. Kelce is No. 1 in postseason history in receptions (165) and second in receiving yards (1,903) and touchdowns (19). Receiver Xavier Worthy provides the Chiefs with a speedy weapon with the ball in his hands. In 2024, Worthy had 59 catches for 638 yards and six touchdowns. The Texas product has gone over 40 receiving yards in seven straight games. See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make Chiefs vs. Texans picks
Hartstein has analyzed Chiefs vs. Texans from every possible angle. He’s leaning Over the point total, he has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. Head to SportsLine to see what it is, and find out which team to back.
Who wins Chiefs vs. Texans on Saturday in the NFL playoffs 2025, and which critical x-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on, all from the expert who is 30-14 on picks involving the Chiefs, and find out.
