There have only been 13 Triple Crown winners in the history of American horse racing and the two most recent entrants have a chance to shape the landscape of the sport for decades to come. American Pharoah and Justify captured all three legs and now have begun their stud careers. On Saturday at Churchill Downs, there will be two horses sired by American Pharoah and one by Justify in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. American Promise is a son of Justify and is 30-1 in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, while Luxor Cafe (15-1) and Publisher (20-1) were sired by American Pharoah. Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism (3-1) might not be the son of a Triple Crown winner, but his sire Curlin hit the board in all three American classics and won the 2007 Preakness. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman, even though he’s one of the top favorites at 6-1 and just won the Arkansas Derby. Though trainer Mark Casse has put together a Hall of Fame career, he hasn’t won a Triple Crown race since 2019 and has never won the Kentucky Derby. Sandman is one of his best shots yet as seven Kentucky Derby winners first won the Arkansas Derby, including three since 2010.
Sandman, however, only has that one win in his graded-stakes history. He settled for third at the Rebel Stakes in February behind Kentucky Derby longshot Coal Battle. Demling has found several longshots he likes better, saying that Sandman “looks too immature to win the Derby.” See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Japanese horses are 0-for-7 at the Kentucky Derby, but the country is inching closer to reaching the winner’s circle by investing heavily in improving the bloodlines of their thoroughbreds. Enter American Pharoah, the only horse in history to win the American grand slam, who opened with a $200,000 stud fee in 2016 and fathered Luxor Cafe in 2022.
Luxor Cafe was foaled in Kentucky, but quickly shipped to Japan and he qualified on the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby with a dominant five-length win in the Fukuryu Stakes. He hasn’t been tested against a large and talented field like this, but he did beat UAE Derby winner and fellow Derby qualifier Admire Daytona twice. Brazilian jockey Joao Moreira won a maiden race at Churchill Downs in 2013 and has said Luxor Cafe should handle the distance with ease. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
2025 Kentucky Derby horses, program numbers
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza