The 2025 Kentucky Derby is only a few weeks away and now that all prep races have been completed, the field for the 151st Run for the Roses is taking shape. After a three-year suspension following Medina Spirit’s disqualification from the Kentucky Derby four years ago, trainer Bob Baffert has three 2025 Kentucky Derby horses qualified to run in the first leg of the Triple Crown at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 3. Rodriguez, Citizen Bull and Madaket Road all qualified on points as Baffert seeks his seventh Derby win. Rodriguez is 10-1 in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds after his win in the Wood Memorial, while Citizen Bull is 20-1 and Madaket Road is 54-1. Journalism is the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby futures after three graded-stakes wins. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby futures already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez, even though he’s one of the favorites. In fact, Demling says Rodriguez doesn’t even hit the board in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Rodriguez is trained by Bob Baffert and was widely considered to be the legendary trainer’s top contender in the 2025 Run for the Roses. Rodriguez won the Santa Anita MSW and the Wood Memorial in 2025. He also has a second place finish in the Robert B. Lewis and a third place in the San Felipe Stakes.
However, Demling has concerns about the three-year-old colt’s performance at the San Felipe Stakes in March. He finished well behind Derby favorite Journalism on a track similar to Churchill Downs. Demling isn’t considering Rodriguez among his top 2025 Kentucky Derby horses or longshot picks. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Sired by American Pharoah, who ended a 37-year Triple Crown drought in American horse racing in 2015 and then became the first horse in history to complete the American grand slam, Luxor Cafe was bred in Kentucky and trained in Japan.
Luxor Cafe qualified for the 2025 Kentucky Derby with wins in the Fukurya Stakes and Hyacinth Stakes, and now has four career victories in six starts. Trainer Noriyuki Hori is one of the best in Japan and will try to give the country another chance to win America’s most prestigious race. Forever Young’s third-place finish in last year’s Kentucky Derby was the best ever for a Japanese horse and Luxor Cafe certainly has the pedigree to be in contention for the win in 2025. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a double-digit longshot who “has a legit shot.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.