2024 Open Championship odds, picks, field: Surprising predictions from top golf model that nailed 13 majors

Royal Troon Golf Club was established in 1878 and over the last 146 years, it’s hosted the Open Championship nine times. Beginning on Thursday, July 18, it will play host for a 10th when the 2024 Open Championship is contested on the legendary grounds. Henrik Stenson set the British Open scoring record relative to par (-20) when Royal Troon last hosted the Open Championship, though that mark was later tied by Cameron Smith at St. Andrews in 2022.

Stenson didn’t qualify this year but Smith will be in the British Open field and he’s listed at 31-1 in the 2024 Open Championship odds. Meanwhile, Scottie Scheffler is the 5-1 favorite having piled up six victories already this season and Rory McIlroy is listed at 13-2 in the 2024 British Open odds coming off his collapse at the U.S. Open. Before locking in your 2024 Open Championship picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters, its third Masters in a row, and this year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns. 

Now with the Open Championship 2024 field locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 Open Championship predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 Open Championship: McIlroy (13-2), the 2014 Open Championship winner and one of the top favorites, stumbles and doesn’t even crack the top five. McIlroy’s 10-year major championship drought is well documented, which made his mishaps down the stretch of the U.S. Open even more painful. He missed multiple putts within four feet in the final three holes, leading to a brutal runner-up finish. 

It is going to be difficult for McIlroy to overcome those lingering emotions in the final major of the year, especially since the Open Championship brings its own unique pressure for the Northern Irishman. He has finished outside the top 40 in two of his last four appearances at this tournament, and he did not crack the top 10 at the Masters or PGA Championship earlier this season. McIlroy ranks outside the top 50 on the PGA Tour in GIR percentage, which is another reason why the model is fading him in this year’s final major. See who else to fade here.

Another surprise: Jordan Spieth, a 47-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 30-year-old is a 13-time PGA Tour winner and a three-time major champion, including a win at the 2017 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.

He went nearly four years without a victory after that but finally got back to the top with a win at the 2021 Valero Texas Open. He went on to add another victory at the 2022 RBC Heritage. He’s currently ranked No. 34 in the Official World Golf Ranking and even though he’s only had three top-10 finishes this season, he has a long history of success in the Open Championship. He’s had four other top-10 finishes in addition to his victory and has never missed the cut in 10 attempts. See who else to back here. 

How to make 2024 Open Championship picks

The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.

Who will win the 2024 Open Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the Open Championship 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected Open Championship leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and all three majors this year.

2024 Open Championship odds, field

Get full 2024 Open Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler 5-1
Rory McIlroy 13-2
Bryson DeChambeau 11-1
Xander Schauffele 14-1
Ludvig Aberg 14-1
Viktor Hovland 16-1
Collin Morikawa 16-1
Tommy Fleetwood 21-1
Jon Rahm 24-1
Shane Lowry 29-1
Brooks Koepka 30-1
Patrick Cantlay 31-1
Cameron Smith 31-1
Joaquin Niemann 33-1
Matt Fitzpatrick 34-1
Tony Finau 34-1
Max Homa 38-1
Tom Kim 40-1
Tyrrell Hatton 40-1
Justin Thomas 41-1
Will Zalatoris 41-1
Hideki Matsuyama 42-1
Robert Macintyre 45-1
Jordan Spieth 47-1
Cameron Young 50-1
Jason Day 50-1
Brian Harman 50-1
Dustin Johnson 50-1
Wyndham Clark 50-1
Min Woo Lee 55-1
Sam Burns 65-1
Louis Oosthuizen 65-1
Sahith Theegala 65-1
Patrick Reed 65-1
Sung-Jae Im 65-1
Corey Conners 65-1
Si Woo Kim 80-1
Adam Scott 80-1
Rickie Fowler 80-1
Justin Rose 100-1
Thomas Detry 100-1
Adrian Meronk 100-1
Tiger Woods 100-1
Padraig Harrington 110-1
Ryan Fox 110-1
Seamus Power 120-1
Kurt Kitayama 120-1
Russell Henley 120-1
Jordan Smith 120-1
Talor Gooch 120-1
Sergio Garcia 120-1
Matthew Jordan 120-1
Tom Hoge 140-1
Billy Horschel 140-1
Alex Noren 140-1
Phil Mickelson 150-1
Gary Woodland 150-1
Mito Pereira 160-1
J.T. Poston 170-1
Keegan Bradley 170-1
Thomas Pieters 170-1
Abraham Ancer 170-1
Matt Wallace 170-1
Sam Bennett 210-1
Keith Mitchell 210-1
Harris English 210-1
Danny Willett 210-1
Alex Fitzpatrick 210-1
Chris Kirk 210-1
Taylor Moore 280-1
Stewart Kink 300-1
Charl Schwartzel 300-1

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